Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
