Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
